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Fantasy Preview: Atlanta

by Tim Zaegel on October 24th, 2007

The Nextel Cup Series will attempt to follow up its above-average race at Martinsville when they head to Atlanta this weekend.  We’ve still got at least three drivers still in serious Championship contention, some drivers hoping to end their sub-par seasons on a high note, and several other drivers joining new teams and attempting to make an immediate impact within the organizations.  It should all combine for some good racing on Sunday, but for now I’m going to do as I do every week and attempt to forecast the outcome!

Winner: Jimmie Johnson – Okay, so I’ve been fighting the notion of picking a Hendrick car to win the race for these few weeks that I’ve been doing this, but I think it’s about time that I go ahead and submit. Jimmie’s heading to yet another track that he’s been overly impressive at – 12 races with 2 wins (including this past Spring) and six top five’s. He’s finished first and second in the last two races here, and heads to Atlanta carrying a lot of momentum and a lot of high hopes on his shoulders.

2nd Place: Jeff Gordon – Yup, not only am I finally picking a Hendrick car to win, but I’m predicting another one, two combo from NASCAR’s hottest race team. Gordon’s been far and away the best driver all season long, which is the main reason I’m putting him here. Besides that, though, he was working on a string of three consecutive top six Atlanta finishes until he finished 12th in the Spring race. He hasn’t won here since 2003, but then again, he hadn’t won at Lowe’s since 1998 … we saw how that turned out.

3rd Place: Carl Edwards – Atlanta may very well be Carl’s best track on the schedule. In six races, he has an average finish of 9.8 – which is best amongst all active drivers with two or more starts here. In those six races, he has two wins and five top ten’s (finished 40th in the Spring of ’06).  He’s currently boasting back-to-back 7th place Atlanta finishes.

4th Place: Tony Stewart – His seventeen races here have resulted in an average finish of 11.5.  In the last 12 Atlanta races, however, that average improves to 5.9.  In those races, he’s sporting two wins, seven top five’s, and eleven top ten’s (only finish outside of the top 10 in that span was 17th in the Spring ’05 race). Like Johnson, Stewart has also finished 1st and 2nd in the last two Atlanta races.

5th Place: Greg Biffle – In nine races at Atlanta, Biffle’s best finish was 3rd back in 2005.  He has two top five’s and five top ten’s, but has run very well in the past few Cup races.  I’m expecting him to carry that momentum into Georgia this weekend.

6th Place: Ryan Newman – He’s made the trip to Atlanta 11 times now and has only one top five finish and four top ten’s … the last of which came back in 2004. This is a risky pick, I know, but I’ve been tremendously impressed with Newman these past couple of races and it’s become abundantly clear that this team wants to shake off the mediocrity that’s plagued them the past couple of seasons and get their first win since ’05 and end 2007 on a high note.

Lock of the Week:  Jeff Gordon

Sleeper Pick:  Juan Pablo Montoya

Steer Clear of:  Kevin Harvick

Fantasy Follow-Up:  Martinsville

My Picks

1. Denny Hamlin (6th) – 40.5 points

2. Jimmie Johnson (1st) – 42.5 points

3. Tony Stewart (13th) – 36 points

4. Jeff Gordon (3rd) – 40.5 points

5. Jamie McMurray (outside top 15) – no points

6. Kyle Busch (4th) – 39 points

Lock:  Jeff Gordon (Top 5) – 10 points

Sleeper:  Bobby LaBonte (outside Top 15) – no points

Steer Clear:  Greg Biffle (Top 10) – minus 15 points

Total Points: 193.5

Other Players:

“Roc” – 171 points

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POSTED IN: Fantasy Preview / Follow-Up, NASCAR