Fantasy Preview: Daytona
As if the weekly uncertainty of engine failures, chassis setups, and oil spills on the track didn’t already make it hard enough for you to set your fantasy racing lineups each week, the Daytona 500 is especially tough to prepare for because of the factor that must be taken out … momentum. Sure, we know how these drivers ran in 2007 and how much the progressed or regressed from 2006, but does that really tell us how they’ll do in ’08? Well, luckily for you, I’m here to provide you with the same service I’ve provided for every Cup race since I began writing this blog last year as I provide you with my predictions for the top six finishers in the race, my lock of the week, my steer clear of pick (must come from the top 15 in points), and my sleeper pick (must come from outside of the top 15 in points). As always, feel free to play against me in this “Six-Pack Challenge”.
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – How can he not be the favorite to win the biggest Daytona 500 in history? This year he’s packing a Hendrick motor, he won the Budweiser Shootout just last weekend, he won his Gatorade Duel event Friday, and oh … have you seen his record at Daytona? Sixteen starts at this track have brought him two wins, six top five’s, nine top ten’s, and an overall average finish of 14.1. Teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have better records at Daytona – depending on how you view it – but, Junior’s the guy riding in this weekend feeling the energy and the momentum.
2. Jeff Gordon – With four wins and an average finish of 15.3 in his last 20 Daytona starts, Gordon has always got to be a favorite to win this race … as he is with almost any race that he competes in. He’s also got six top-ten finishes in the last eight Daytona competitions, including 10th and 5th place finishes last year. He’s backed all of that up throughout the Daytona speedweeks with a strong showing in the Budweiser Shootout and then with a third place finish in the second Gatorade Duel on Friday. I’m expecting him to push Junior across the line at the end of this one.
3. Tony Stewart – All off-season the blogging world has questioned what Tony will be able to do with the Toyota Camry this year, but “Smoke” has surpassed even the highest of expectations to this point. The horsepower that these
4. Kevin Harvick – Last year’s Daytona 500 winner will be looking to repeat, no doubt, but with this year’s field he’s certain to have his hands full. In his thirteen Daytona races, Harvick currently sports an average finish of 16.4, and he finished 7th in the second Duel event. I’m predicting him to become Stewart’s wing-man late in the race to attempt to succumb the Hendrick cars.
5. Jimmie Johnson – He’s got the best average finish at Daytona amongst all active drivers with with five or more starts there, posting an average of 12.0 over the course of twelve races. He won the Daytona 500 in 2006, but in the three races here since then his best finish was 10th, which came in last year’s July race. Jimmie Jo’s looking to start the 2008 campaign off in strong fashion as he sets his sights on a third consecutive Cup championship. Look for the Hendrick cars to hook up and run the majority of this race together … and, from the front … but, somebody’s going to have to get shuffled in those closing laps.
6. Mark Martin – This 6th place slot was really a coin toss, but Martin’s 2nd place effort in the 500 last year combined with his fifth place running in the second Duel event this year turned out to be the deciding factors. Never having won a race at Daytona, he comes here with an average finish of 17.8 over his last 20 races.
Lock of the Week: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Sleeper Pick: David Ragan
Steer Clear of: Martin Truex Jr.
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POSTED IN: Fantasy Preview / Follow-Up, NASCAR
5 opinions for Fantasy Preview: Daytona
roc
Feb 15, 2008 at 10:59 am
1.88
2.24
3.48
4.20
5.2
6.11
lock 88
steer clear 31
sleeper front row joe 78
Tim Zaegel
Feb 16, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I would normally have Kurt Busch locked in as a favorite at Daytona. But, ever since his incident with Stewart, he seems to have struggled through the Speedweeks. Had to drive a backup car for the Shootout, and I believe he’s in a backup car for the 500 after wrecking out of the Duels.
roc
Feb 17, 2008 at 9:43 am
Acually he didn’t wreck in the dual he was hurt if he is a favorite you could give me the 41 car i think this is reeds best chance to have a break out year.
roc
Feb 17, 2008 at 9:45 am
hurt i meant the car was hurt i believe ingnition system.
Tim Zaegel
Feb 17, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Busch is a fine pick, I was just stating my reasoning for leaving him out of my top six, because in normal circumstances he would undoubtedly be on my list.
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