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Fantasy Preview - Talladega

by Tim Zaegel on October 3rd, 2007

Well, Sunday was certainly a crazy day in Kansas, there’s no denying that.  Nonetheless, I was dead on with my pre-race predictions from a performance standpoint, and got 2/3 as far as actual finishes were concerned.  Stewart lived up to my expectations during the race, but a cut tire skewed his finish and was the only black mark on my Kansas Fantasy Preview.

This week, the series makes its way down south to Talladega, and I’ve decided to approach my Fantasy Previews in a slightly different manner for you.  From here on out, I’ll actually list out my top six finishers for the race as well as listing a “Sure Bet”, a “Sleeper Pick”, and a “Steer Clear” driver.  This should help you monitor my advice over the long run and allow you to better gauge whether or not to take my lists as gospel.  That said, here goes …

Race Winner:  Dale Earnhardt Jr. – I eluded to this last week in my writeup of Eury Jr. leaving for Hendrick after this week, and I’m sticking with my original pick.  Junior comes to Talladega with an average finish of 12.6.  In fifteen career races at this track, he’s walked away with five wins, including a stretch of 7 consecutive races where he finished second or better.  He hasn’t scored a Top 5 at ‘Dega since 2004, but did finish the Spring race here in 7th.  Nonetheless, I still believe that this team is just so motivated to win a race in 2007, especially before Earnhardt and Eury part ways for the remainder of the season, that the no. 8 is going to put on a show this weekend reminiscent of the years that DEI absolutely owned this track.

2nd Place:  Jeff Gordon – The DuPont team has been on fire this entire season, and this Sunday they’ll be visiting a track that Gordon has treasured over the years.  Nineteen races here, 4 wins, 9 Top 5’s, and an average finish of 13.9, Gordon is sure to be one of the real contenders in this race.

3rd Place:  Kurt Busch – The older of the Busch brothers comes to Talladega with an average finish of 10.2 – second best amongst all active NASCAR drivers, and better than anyone to make more than 2 starts here.  Despite the fact that he’s never been able to quite seal the deal and get a win here, in only 13 races at ‘Dega, Busch has scored ten Top 10 finishes and is currently working on a string of six consecutive top 10’s at this track, not to mention finishing third in each of the last 2 races here.

4th Place:  Tony Stewart – “Smoke” has 17 career starts at Talladega and has recorded eight top 5 finishes here.  Though he’s never been able to win here, he’s come close on several occasions with three consecutive 2nd place finishes between the Spring of ’05 and Spring of ’06.  However, Tony has not finished inside the Top 20 since then.

5th Place:  Martin Truex Jr. – In five career Talladega starts, Truex has an average finish of only 20.0.  However, he’s finished 5th and 10th in his last two starts here respectively, and he’s had the Bass Pro Shops machine running up front for most of the season this year.

6th Place:  Kevin Harvick – Todd Berrier and Kevin Harvick have always favored restrictor plate racing, and Talladega’s certainly been good to Harvick over the years.  He comes into this race with an average finish of 13.1 and seven career top 10’s in 13 races here, not to mention back-to-back 6th place finishes in his last two Talladega races.

Top 5 Lock of the Week:  Kurt Busch

Sleeper Pick:  Jamie McMurray

Steer Clear:  Clint Bowyer

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POSTED IN: Fantasy Preview / Follow-Up, NASCAR