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the Chase Update - Week 1

by Tim Zaegel on February 20th, 2008

#1 – Ryan Newman – Flyin’ Ryan took the racing world by complete surprise by coming from behind to win the Daytona 500 this past Sunday and now sits atop the Sprint Cup Series points standings for the first time in his career. His current status at the top could be short-lived, however, as the Cup Series now heads to Fontana, CA … a place that hasn’t been extremely kind to Newman in the past. After posting three consecutive top-ten finishes from ’04 to ’05, he has failed to collect a top-ten at Fontana since the Spring of ’06.

#2 – Kurt Busch – The oldest of the Busch brothers showed the world just how much he’s maturing as a professional driver when he turned an absolutely dismal speedweeks into a second place finish at the Daytona 500. The series heads to California this week where Kurt had previously fallen off just a hair from where he used to be until he rounded out the ’07 Cali series with two solid top-ten’s. If he can avoid trouble on the track this week and retain his positioning toward the top of the standings, 2008 could get off to an electrifying start for the no. 2 team as they head to Las Vegas for the third race of the season where Kurt has done extremely well.

#3 – Tony Stewart – After losing the Daytona 500 in the final lap this last Sunday, you can bet that Smoke will be looking to bounce back and get Toyota into Victory Lane for the first time in their Sprint Cup history. It will be no easy task, however, as this is one of the few tracks Stewart has never earned a victory, with his best finish being his fourth place runs in 1999 and 2001. His average finish in his last five Fontana races is 15.6, which includes a 43rd place finish in the Spring race of ’06.

#4 – Kyle Busch -   Kyle really started to come into his own last season, and has shown no problems bringing that momentum along with him over to the no. 18 team for Joe Gibbs Racing so far. A second place finish in the Nationwide Series race at Daytona followed by a fourth place finish at the Daytona 500 along with leading the most laps have the younger Busch off to a great start. With five straight top 10’s at Califonia, Busch should be a lock to remain in the top five in points which could mean trouble since they will then visit his hometown of Las Vegas.

#5 – Reed Sorenson – Reed looked absolutely great all week long in the Daytona Speedweeks, so it’s really no huge surprise that he finished well in the 500. However, as good as Daytona has been to him, California has been equally bad. Four career starts for Reed in Fontana have resulted in three 21st place finishes and a 43rd. In other words, it could be a complete waste of time to look for Reed on this list next week.

#6 – Kasey Kahne – The no. 9 Dodge team of Kasey Kahne is usually very fast and in contention as we zoom past the halfway point at Daytona, but what they were able to do this year that they haven’t done so much of in the past is keep the car in one piece by the end of the day. With an average finish of 14.3 and a win in 2006 at Fontana, Kahne is likely to remain in the Chase field as the series heads to Vegas for week 3.

#7 – Elliott Sadler – Sadler joined in on a late-race Dodge charge that saw them grab six of the top eight spots in the Datyona 500, and Sadler now has a place in the Chase standings for the first time since making the move over to Evernham Motorsports. He’s also a past winner at California, but has only one other top-ten finish in his thirteen races there. This weekend should prove as a decent indicator as to whether Elliott’s showing signs of returning to NASCAR’s “A” list, or if last weekend was simply a fluke.

#8 – Dale Earnhardt Jr – After prevailing as the heavy favorite to win the race going into last Sunday’s Daytona 500, Junior completed the five-hundred mile race in 9th place and 8th in the points, very much to his own disappointment. Fontana, CA hasn’t been nearly as nice to Dale as Daytona has in the past, but he does have two top-five finishes in his last three tries at Cali, so he does stand an excellent chance of improving on his current position in the standings.

#9 – Robby Gordon – Undoubtedly the biggest surprise on the list. Robby’s had a history of making strong runs at a number of tracks only to run into trouble on the track or mechanical failures. He managed to steer clear of both this past Sunday and now sits ninth in the standings. In eleven attempts at Fontana he has only one top-ten finish which came in 2004, so his success is likely to be short-lived and soon-forgotten. On the bright side, if his ultimate goal is to remain in the top 35 in owner points, he’s off to a great start.

#10 – Greg Biffle – After a strong run late in the race at Daytona, Biffle is showing early signs of possibly returning to his former success in the Cup Series. He also has the benefit of being a former winner at Fontana back in the Spring of ’05 and followed that up with a second place finish in the Fall race. His best finish since then has been only 15th, which came in the Spring of last year, so the Biff will be looking to bring some of last week’s momentum back to the track with him this Sunday.

#11 – Bobby LaBonte – If I’m not mistaken, this would officially mark the first time that a Petty Enterprise team has been inside the Chase field since the playoff format was created in 2004. LaBonte has been impressive at times since joining the Petty team, but a variety of issues seem to continually keep them from well-deserved good finishes. They managed to leave Daytona with an 11th place finish and now head to a track that Bobby has finished second at on two occasions, though he has failed to earn a top-ten in his last seven visits to California.

#12 – Jeff Burton – After going virtually unnoticed all day on Sunday, Burton managed to sneak himself in for a 13th place finish, and since he had led laps as well, currently sits 12th in points. Next week’s visit to Fontana could be a nice reprieve for Jeff, as he finished fourth there in both races last year and fifth in the Spring of ’06.

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