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the Chase Update - Week 4

by Tim Zaegel on March 11th, 2008

#1 – Kyle Busch (-) – It’s been said a hundred times by now, but Kyle Busch is in fact the hottest ticket in all of motorsports right now, and he’s steadily proving himself as the real deal. Last weekend was one of historic proportions for Kyle, and he heads into this Sunday’s race at Bristol with three things in mind … 1) defending this race that he won last year;  2) winning two consecutive races for Toyota;  and 3) maintaining his position at the top of the points standings. All three goals revolve around picking up the checkered flag in Bristol.

#2 – Greg Biffle  (+3) – Another solid run this past weekend in Atlanta, and Biffle now has consecutive top-five finishes, and his worst finish on the year is 15th at California. As the series heads to Bristol this weekend, Biffle may not be the first name that pops up on your radar, but you might be surprised to learn that he has five top-ten’s in his last six runs there, has finished outside of the top-fifteen only twice in nine races, and has the best average finish in the last five races at Bristol with an average of 8.8 during that span.

#3 – Kevin Harvick (+1) – Harvick continues to steadily – and quietly – creep his way up through the points standings. After his seventh play finish in the Kobalt Tools 500, he now has three consecutive top-ten finishes, spoiled only by his fourteenth place run at Daytona. Bristol has been up-and-down over the last four years with four finishes outside of the top-ten in those eight races. All four of those finishes were, however, during the fall. In the last four spring races he has finished 3rd, 1st, 2nd, and 4th since 2004. Is overall Bristol average finish is 10.5 in fourteen races.

#4 – Ryan Newman (-2) – Flyin’ Ryan hasn’t really done anything overly impressive since winning the Daytona 500 in February, but his finishes of 10th and a pair of 14th’s since then have been strong enough to keep him inside the top five in points. That could be in jeopardy this weekend, though, considering his inconsistency at Bristol. He does have 6 top-ten’s in 12 races there, but his other six finishes have all been outside of the top-20, five of which were also outside of the top-30.

#5 – Jeff Burton  (+1) – He’s been absolutely solid ever since making the transition over to Richard Childress Racing a few years ago, so why anyone would find it surprising that his first four finishes in ’08 are all inside the top fifteen and that he’s fifth in points is beyond me. He’s been solid at Bristol, and has two 2nd place finishes in the last five races there. His average finish during that five race stretch is 11.8.

#6 – Kasey Kahne (-3) – Kahne entered Atlanta as the only driver to finish all of the first three races inside the top-ten, and looked well on his way to continuing that streak early on, had it not been for a miscue trying to enter pit road. He battled all day to garner as many points as he could, but he’s going to have to be extra tough this weekend if he wants to keep any sort of cushion within the Chase field. He finished 2nd in the fall race at Bristol last year, but other than that, he’d had only one previous top-ten in his first seven Bristol races.

#7 – Dale Earnhardt Jr (+3) – Yes, Junior Nation went wild last weekend … some with tears of joy, some with tears of heartbreak. Some saw it as another top-five, others saw it as another race lost. Regardless, June Bug appears to be settling in well at HMS, and is starting to pick up some real momentum and consistency. That could be bad news for the folks in the garage this weekend, too. He heads to Bristol with 6 top-ten’s and a win in his last 7 Bristol starts, and 9 top-ten’s in his last 12 starts there. He also has a 7.0 average finish in his last 5 Bristol starts and 5.0 and the last three, both of which are tops in NASCAR.

#8 – Tony Stewart (+3) – Many people questioned whether or not Smoke would be okay to compete in Atlanta after aggrevating his ankle in his Vegas crash, especially after staring in 32nd. Alas, it seems as though Stewart simply needed someone to feud with during the race – this time the Goodyear Corp – and, it sent him rebounding to a 2nd place finish. Despite typically running well at Bristol, though, the place has proven to have its rough patches for Tony. He’s got four finishes of 12th or better in the last six races there – including 4th last fall, but prior that had actually gone six consecutive races without a top-ten. He did win once here, however, back in 2001.

#9 – Brian Vickers (+4) – Many people expected him to run much better this season than last, no doubt, but still, sitting 9th in points, Vickers has to be the surprise of the season at this point. He picked up his first top-ten of the season with a ninth place run in Atlanta, but he also had respectable finishes of 11th at California and 12th at Daytona. He finished 15th at Bristol last Spring, but failed to make the Fall race. In his six previous Bristol runs, his only other finish inside the top-fifteen was a 12th place back in 2005.

#10 – Kurt Busch (+2) – Despite the high hopes and the excitement generated from his half of the famous Penske 1-2 finish at Daytona, that was Kurt’s last top-ten run this season, though he did come close last weekend in Atlanta, running 11th. Still, Busch is running mediocre at the moment, but that could all change this weekend. Busch has won five times at Bristol in only fourteen career starts there, including three in a row from ’03 to ’04. His last Bristol victory came in the spring of 2006, but since then has run 37th, 29th, and 6th. Additionally, Kurt’s crew chief, Pat Tryson, won here with Mark Martin back in 1998.

#11 – Martin Truex Jr (-3) – His 21st place run at Atlanta nearly took him out of the Chase field, but he still holds on here.  For how long, though, could be a whole other story. He’s raced at Bristol four times in the Cup Series, with finishes of 38th, 18th, 37th, and 11th. With the competition that looms just outside of the current Chase field, Truex will be looking for his first-ever Bristol top-ten if he wishes to remain where he’s at now.

#12 – Matt Kenseth (+4) – In typical Kenseth fashion, Matt was able to turn a potentially terrible day around into his favor and land himself with a solid top-ten effort. The way the team stuck together last weekend could be a good indicator that Matt is finally clicking with his new crew chief. If that’s the case, this weekend could be big. Kenseth is a two-time Bristol winner, winning once in ’05 and again in ’06. 2007 was a different story, though, as he recorded finishes of 11th and 39th. His overall average finish at Bristol is 12.5.

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